Astrology and statistics
Gauquelin 'n' co
My question is :
Can we observe irrational phenomenons using only rational means ?
I'm studying the history of published statistical tests on astrology between 1955 to 1996, which led me to develop opengauquelin.org, a database gathering the data used in the historical tests.
The software building the database is g5 on tig12.github.io/g5.
The software building the database is g5 on tig12.github.io/g5.
I still don't know if statistical anomalies can be observed out of human bias, but studying this story convinced me that this problem has not been studied seriously by the academic world, except by two German psychologists, Suibert Ertel and Arno Müller, who analyzed all the published tests and conducted independant tests. Their conclusions are :
Observation : We today have the means to re-examine with more reliable and complete data.
- Introducing an "objective" method to select the most eminent persons, the "mars effect" can be observed, and the effect is stronger for very eminent athletes.
- The reproduction of previous tests and independant replications sometimes confirm the existence of anomalies, and sometimes show that claimed anomalies can't be reproduced.
- Selection bias from Gauquelin during the "Comité Para" test (Belgium, 1976), which confirmed the existence of statistical anomaly.
- Manipulation of data by Paul Kurtz in the CSICOP test (USA 1979) to make the anomaly disappear.
- Opaque and unfair data selection in the CFEPP test (France 1996) makes the conclusion of this test (inexistence of anomaly) not scientifically valid.
Observation : We today have the means to re-examine with more reliable and complete data.
This part of the site is incomplete, contains draft material.